According to customs statistics, in July 2022, my country’s cotton yarn export volume was 25,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.63%, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%; the cotton cloth export volume in July was 639 million meters, a month-on-month increase of 10.86%, a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and July In March, my country’s cotton yarn and cotton cloth imports plunged sharply compared to the same period last year (the year-on-year decreases of the two reached 63.34% and 41.65% respectively).
The above data shows that although the U.S./EU ban on Xinjiang cotton imports has been fully upgraded and its impact has spilled over to Southeast Asian and South Asian countries, the U.S.’s additional tariffs on Chinese textiles/clothing have not been canceled, and the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively raise interest rates to fight inflation, triggering global currency Concerns about tightening and global economic recession are rising, and consumer demand for textile and clothing continues to decline. However, my country’s export competitiveness of cotton yarn, gray cloth, fabrics, clothing, etc. is strong and has outstanding cost-effectiveness advantages.
However, according to statistics, the total export value of my country’s cotton yarn and cotton cloth in July 2022 was US$1.225 billion, accounting for 9.02% of the textile export value, 0.12 percentage points lower than the cumulative share from January to July, and 0.57 percentage points lower than the same period in 2021. It was 2.89 percentage points lower than the same period in 2019.
Why did my country’s cotton yarn and cotton cloth exports rebound against the trend in July? Industry insiders analyze it as follows:
First, since the first half of 2022, a certain amount of high-cost and high-value-added orders from Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea have been transferred to Southeast Asian countries. However, yarn mills and garment companies in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries are affected by equipment, employee technical level, There are many restrictions on industrial supporting facilities. High-count yarns, high-count, high-density wide-width fabrics, etc. are not only insufficient in production capacity but also of very unstable quality. Therefore, we can only purchase Chinese-made gauze and fabrics to complete orders (including traceability orders for Chinese-origin American cotton yarn/cotton cloth, and Brazilian cotton yarn). /cotton or even Indian cotton yarn/cotton etc.).
Second, due to factors such as high cotton prices and rising energy, coupled with the recent significant decrease in new orders placed in the European and American markets, the profits of Indian and Pakistani yarn mills and weaving mills have fallen sharply, and the ratio of production reductions/stops has continued to be high (spinners in southern India The factory operating rate is only 40%-50%), and China’s cotton yarn and gray fabrics took the opportunity to expand exports.
Third, due to the continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the depreciation of the RMB accelerated in July and August, which was beneficial to the export of cotton yarn, gray fabrics, etc. According to statistics, throughout July, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar fell slightly from 6.6943 at the end of June to 6.7390, with a cumulative depreciation of 447 basis points and a cumulative decline of approximately 0.67%; the central parity rate fell from 6.7114 at the end of June to 6.7437, with a depreciation rate of 0.48%. .
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