International oil prices have weakened for two consecutive days, but on September 1, the polyester chain did not fall but rose. EG and PTA were the top increasers among chemicals, with PTA reporting at 5,594 yuan, up 1.23%. Ethylene glycol rose 1.94%.
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As expectations of interest rate hikes by global central banks increase, further putting pressure on the commodity market, risk appetite continues to decline. National oil prices fell for two consecutive days. OPEC has recently made frequent statements to protect the market. In the face of falling oil prices, OPEC may extend cooperation to safeguard its own interests. The decision on production control at the OPEC September meeting next week will still have an important impact on the later operation of oil prices.
Although the PTA maintenance equipment has been restarted and the market supply has been supercharged with power restrictions and production cuts, some factories have continued to buy to support the spot, and PX supply is still tight and some factories have continued to buy, which may offset the market’s bearish expectations. The market price channel has not yet opened, and the overall fluctuation range has not been large in the near future.
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The maintenance of some PTA equipment may be delayed, and the market continues to destock against the background of tight supply. It is reported that Hengli Petrochemical’s 3# 2.2 million ton unit, which was shut down for maintenance on August 1, may be postponed to September to restart. Yisheng Lian 1’s 2.25 million ton unit is currently 60% operational and plans to be overhauled in September. Yisheng Ningbo 3# 2 million The ton unit was shut down on July 23 and may not restart in September. In addition, the 1.2 million tons of Zhongtai Chemical and the 650,000 tons of Yizheng Chemical Fiber units are scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in September, while the Honggang Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical’s total 2.15 million tons units will continue to be shut down. The supply side has been compressed again, and daily supply and demand have shifted to destocking. All mainstream suppliers are buying and selling, and downstream needs are mainly replenished.
On the demand side, with the alleviation of power restrictions in East China, the operating load of the weaving and polyester industries has recovered to a certain extent recently. The current operating load of the polyester industry has been raised to a level above 82%. There are currently 3 sets of polyester in September. With the release of 1.15 million tons of new production capacity and the restart of superimposed maintenance equipment, demand is expected to improve month-on-month. However, compared with the same period in previous years during the Golden Nine peak season, the quality is still insufficient. The market is mostly waiting for the performance of Double Eleven orders in the later period.
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Recently, the domestic ethylene glycol term market has fluctuated at a low level, and the price trend has been slightly stagnant, with prices fluctuating around 4,000 yuan/ton. In late August, the coal chemical industry started to shut down for centralized maintenance. Today, Shaanxi Weihe Chemical Industry started to shut down for maintenance. In early September, with the successive restarts of Sanning’s 600,000-ton and Hongsifang’s 300,000-ton units, the industry is expected to bottom out and recover; while integration On the other hand, Hengli 180 has successfully restarted, and Zhejiang Petrochemical Line 2 has recently restarted. Although the start-up of coal chemical industry is at a low level, due to the rapid improvement of integration, the overall monthly output of the industry is still based on incremental expectations.
Affected by the maintenance of overseas equipment and shipping schedules, the expected arrival at the terminal in late August has been significantly reduced, and the arrival in early September is expected to remain low. However, with the replenishment of horse oil supply and the return of large domestic refining and chemical plants from mid-September, The degree of destocking at ports is also expected to weaken. Since there has been no substantial improvement on the supply and demand side, the accumulation of inventory after October is expected to be relatively large.
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