With the coming of the Golden Nine, Silver Ten and foreign Christmas seasons, this may be a major opportunity for textile and apparel people to make a comeback this year, because judging from the data of previous years, the textile and apparel market began to improve from September until it reached the peak of the year in November. September has arrived, has the peak season signal for the textile market arrived?
1. Weaving starts to pick up
The power cuts in Zhejiang have been lifted, and the start-up of texturing looms has continued to rebound significantly. As of September 2, the operating rate of texturing was 77%, that of weaving was 65%, and that of printing and dyeing was 72%. Terminal orders have experienced a slight seasonal rebound, and the supply of raw materials is tight and it is difficult to fall. The downstream speculative raw material inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory is around 10-30 days.
2. Polyester load rebounds
As of September 2, the immediate operating rate of polyester has rebounded to around 84%, the weighted inventory of polyester is around 25 days, and the weighted profit of polyester is around 324. During the peak season, downstream stocking increased, polyester inventories fell slightly, raw material prices were strong and profits were slightly compressed, and polyester operating rates rebounded as inventory pressure eased slightly.
3. Polyester inventory declines
As of the 2nd, the equity inventories of POY, DTY, FDY and short fiber were 25.5, 31.4, 24.8 and 13.6 days respectively, with inventories declining. During the peak season, downstream stockings increased, and polyester inventories fell. The weather is getting cooler, the peak season of the Gold, Nine and Silver Tens is coming, terminal operating rates are picking up, and the demand for polyester may improve.
The entire textile and apparel market margin
The possibility of improvement is still high
The textile market has very strong seasonal patterns, and sales in the second half of the year are usually higher than in the first half. Judging from the absolute value trend of domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats in my country, June and July are the seasonal lows of seasonal retail sales. August and July are basically the same, and they gradually rise from September to December. From 2011- This pattern will appear throughout the ten years of 2020. We believe 2022 will be no exception. Judging from the actual situation, there are consumption peaks on Double Eleven and Double Twelve every year in China, and there is a consumption frenzy during Christmas and New Year overseas.
Although the overall performance of the textile market was weak in the early stage, with the arrival of September, the market actually showed signs of recovery. According to market understanding, autumn and winter fabrics have begun to be launched one after another. In addition to elastic fabrics, down jacket fabrics such as pongee and nylon also have a certain sales volume.
Therefore, we can be cautiously optimistic that the domestic consumption peak will still come in the second half of the year. The traditional peak season was originally dominated by the order market. In recent years, it has been suppressed by the spot market, resulting in the order market not being as good as before. However, September and October will gradually usher in the order season for the order market, and orders will gradually increase. The textile market It is bound to gradually pick up.
High inventory of gray fabrics and small batch orders restrain the market from rising
Market competition will become more intense during the peak season
However, due to many uncertain factors, economic operation is still facing pressure and challenges. The market is looking forward to the arrival of the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” and there are still greater negative factors. This can be seen from the association’s recent survey on the current status of the cluster market.
According to white gray fabric cluster enterprises, the current opening rate is about 70%, orders are obviously insufficient, and losses are gradually deepening. The operating rate of downstream printing and dyeing enterprises is generally not high. The operating rate of enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is about 60%, and the operating rate of enterprises in Fujian and Guangdong is less than half. In terms of terminals, most clothing brand orders have been postponed, and home textile customers are in a wait-and-see mode. It is expected that there may be little improvement in the short term.
According to reports from yarn-dyed cloth cluster enterprises, in September, the production situation of enterprises above designated size has improved. Export orders have increased steadily and are showing a recovery trend, but overall, the number of orders is still lower than in previous years. Affected by many factors such as fluctuations in raw materials, companies have small profit margins, are not willing to accept orders, and are still cautious about the market outlook.
According to reports from denim cluster enterprises, the recent opening rate has remained at around 90%. Judging from August shipment data, the overall situation remains basically stable. Recently, domestic customers have increased their willingness to stock up; the exchange rate has reached a high level, which is good for export business to a certain extent. Due to many uncertain factors, companies are still worried about the market outlook.
Although there are signs that the entire textile and apparel market is more likely to improve marginally in September, it is still far behind compared with previous years. The social inventory of gray fabrics is still high, and the production enthusiasm of weaving manufacturers is still recovering. On the other hand, both the upper and lower industrial chains tend to wait for the peak season, but whether they can support prices remains to be verified by the market. Still, due to the high inventory of gray fabrics, manufacturers are eager to destock, and it is difficult to eliminate the phenomenon of selling goods at low prices, which suppresses the overall price of gray fabrics in the market. For most textile bosses, market trading is still under great pressure. The overall market volume is tight compared with the same period last year. It is difficult to boost the overall market volume. In addition, under the imbalance of supply and demand, Market competition has become more intense, and bothThe trend of polarization is also becoming more and more obvious.
Since the beginning of this year, life has been difficult for all parts of the textile industry chain. Will the textile market be booming again? It depends on whether the order fabric market, which has been proofing, can step forward to take over and continue to lead the textile people.
</p
