International oil prices fell back from highs overnight, with PTA among the polyester chains leading the decline. After a two-day correction, it gave up most of its gains at the beginning of the week and closed at 5,492 yuan, down 3.34%. Short fiber fell by 2.69%.
OPEC decided to cut production by 100,000 barrels per day in October at its monthly meeting. Although this sent a very strong signal to the market, such a symbolic production cut has not yet changed the weak performance of oil prices. However, as domestic device operating rates and import volumes remain low in the short term, the overall supply and demand of PX remains tight, providing support for PTA costs.
On the supply side, in September, PTA equipment continued to undergo maintenance and shutdowns to reduce loads, and the daily supply and demand destocking was relatively strong. Some suppliers’ shipments are blocked, polyester factories still need to replenish supplies, and suppliers still have buying orders. The basis continues to rise, and spot prices follow up. Guotai Junan Futures reminds that the front-month contract continues to run on the strong side. However, the current futures discount is close to the historical limit of 17%, and we should be wary of the risk of a price drop after delivery.
On the demand side, with the alleviation of power restrictions in East China, the operating load of the weaving and polyester industries has recovered to a certain extent recently. The current operating load of the polyester industry has been raised to a level above 82%. There are currently 3 sets of polyester in September. With the release of 1.15 million tons of new production capacity and the restart of superimposed maintenance equipment, demand is expected to improve month-on-month. However, compared with the same period in previous years during the Golden Nine peak season, the quality is still insufficient. The market is mostly waiting for the performance of Double Eleven orders in the later period.
The supply and demand side of ethylene glycol itself continues to improve, and inventories have been continuously eliminated in the past month. In late August, the coal chemical industry started to shut down for centralized maintenance. Today, Shaanxi Weihe Chemical Industry started to shut down for maintenance. In early September, with the successive restarts of Sanning’s 600,000-ton and Hongsifang’s 300,000-ton units, the industry is expected to bottom out and recover; while integration On the other hand, Hengli 180 has successfully restarted, and Zhejiang Petrochemical Line 2 has recently restarted. Although the start-up of coal chemical industry is at a low level, due to the rapid improvement of integration, the overall monthly output of the industry is still based on incremental expectations.
Affected by overseas equipment maintenance and shipping schedules, the expected arrival at the terminal in late August has been significantly reduced, and arrival in early September is expected to remain low. In addition, with the strong trend of the US dollar index, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has once again depreciated sharply. Ethylene glycol is a product with high import dependence, and exchange rate fluctuations have a greater impact on it.
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