In the past three years, the COVID-19 epidemic, supply chain disruption, and energy crisis have brought three supply shocks to the global economy.
In contrast, China not only has a complete industrial chain system, a huge domestic demand market, and gradually accumulated technological capabilities, but also has energy cost advantages and stability advantages under the “two oil systems”. The global manufacturing industry is relatively Advantages should be revalued.
The great shift in European manufacturing
Currently, the parallel pricing system in the oil market has had a significant impact on energy costs in various countries. The European manufacturing industry, which has benefited from cheap energy for many years, has been greatly affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A large number of manufacturing factories have been forced to reduce production or close down, and some manufacturing orders have to be transferred, such as organic chemicals, electrical equipment, mechanical equipment and automobile parts. Parts etc.
European manufacturing, especially high-energy-consuming industries, will experience share shifts caused by cost shocks, which may bring a new round of dividends to China in terms of increasing the share of energy-intensive industries.
According to the ranking of gas consumption ratio and energy consumption ratio per unit of production, the chemical industry with high gas consumption and energy consumption is the first to bear the brunt. Europe needs to import large amounts of energy-intensive goods to meet its own production and consumption needs. As a result, the EU’s trade surplus is rapidly turning into a deficit.
Among them, Germany’s trade deficit with China increased by 245% year-on-year in the second quarter, an increase of US$17.86 billion compared with the same period last year, accounting for 44% of the change in Germany’s overall trade balance in the second quarter.
The products with the largest transfer of production from Germany to China mainly fall into four categories: the first category is organic chemistry; the second category is electrical equipment; the third category is mechanical equipment; and the fourth category is automobiles and their parts.
In addition, taking a manufacturing factory in Italy as an example, the possible natural gas shortage this winter has put many Italian manufacturing companies into operating difficulties. Sacmi Group mainly produces packaging machinery, ceramic equipment, filling equipment, bottle cap making machinery and other products, and is a key link in the industrial chain.
Mongardi, chairman of the group, said that rising energy prices have caused some companies to suspend production and reduced the competitiveness of European manufacturing. Moreover, energy costs in 2022 are already twice as high as last year, and are expected to rise to three times as high as in 2021 by 2023. He warned that the energy crisis had reduced the competitiveness of Italian and European manufacturing.
U.S. manufacturing reshoring plan
In addition to Europe, the U.S. manufacturing industry has also attracted much attention. Recently, the United States plans to bring back the country’s manufacturing industry. The Biden administration plans to expand restrictions on U.S. companies exporting artificial intelligence chips and chip manufacturing equipment to China next month.
All U.S. chip production equipment manufacturers have received letters from the U.S. Department of Commerce, requiring these companies not to export 14-nanometer and below chip production equipment to China unless they obtain permission from the department.
In this regard, Xiang Ligang, a senior observer in the communications industry, said that the United States’ export restrictions also mean that American companies are handing over these markets to rapidly developing Chinese companies. In addition, the White House official website released a briefing announcing that US President Biden has officially signed an executive order to launch a “National Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Plan.”
The draft order lays out a strategy to boost domestic manufacturing in the United States, using biotechnology to create a range of products and materials including new drugs, biofuels and food. Details of the executive order have not been made public.
The promotion of the reshoring of manufacturing in the United States is not a short-term expedient for one government, but a long-term strategic goal for national development. The source of U.S. manufacturing reshoring is not only China, but also allies such as South Korea and Japan.
South Korea has been directly hit by the U.S. manufacturing reshoring policy. A huge chip investment project in South Korea that had been finalized was abruptly snatched away by the United States, and the person who came forward to snatch it away was the US Secretary of Commerce Raimondo.
Southeast Asia’s manufacturing industry has outstanding strength
There is also Southeast Asia, whose manufacturing strength cannot be underestimated. Countries including Vietnam and Bangladesh were once called the “next China.” Many manufacturing manufacturers have begun to move from China to Southeast Asia.
A research report from Guohai Securities shows that the world manufacturing market is currently in the fifth round of international industrial transfer. Many labor-intensive industries with low added value have moved from China to Southeast Asian countries including Vietnam and Bangladesh. .
Manufacturers including Adidas, Nike, Apple, Intel, and Nokia have begun to focus on Southeast Asia.
Judging from the output of Vietnam’s main industrial products from January to August 2022 disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics of Vietnam, the food and beverage, textile, automobile and other industries have all achieved positive growth, among which the output of mobile phone components has increased by 1 year-on-year.9.6%.
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of Vietnam, in the first eight months of this year, the total export volume of Vietnam’s foreign-invested enterprises reached nearly 185.44 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 18.2% (a net increase of 28.55 billion U.S. dollars), accounting for 73.4% of Vietnam’s total exports. The total import volume of foreign-invested enterprises was US$160.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.9% (a net increase of US$19.68 billion), accounting for 65.1% of Vietnam’s total imports.
The latest data recently released by the Malaysian Ministry of International Trade and Industry show that in July this year, Malaysia’s trade volume increased by 39.8% year-on-year to 252.65 billion ringgit. The upward momentum is strong, and the trade volume has achieved double-digit growth for 18 consecutive months.
Among them, the export growth was mainly due to the export value of electrical and electronic products, petroleum products, machinery, equipment and parts, metal products, optical fiber and scientific equipment, and chemical products, which increased by more than 1 billion ringgit each. Exports of manufactured goods increased by 35.4% at an annual rate in July to 112.26 billion ringgit, achieving double-digit growth for 12 consecutive months.
Therefore, some experts pointed out that Chinese factories should face up to the situation promptly and transform the local manufacturing industry. In fact, many major manufacturers have taken this “transfer” as an “opportunity” to continuously accelerate the process of their own industrial transformation and strive to survive the period of industrial transformation at high speed and with high quality.
In addition, we should not underestimate the ambitions of various countries to promote the development of manufacturing. We need to pay more attention to the various means and consequences of various countries to promote the reshoring of manufacturing, and adopt more active and powerful policies to effectively turn competitive pressure into a driving force for domestic development. .
China: It is expected to provide another 32 billion yuan in tax refunds to manufacturing companies in the next four months of this year
On September 13, Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council and decided to further extend the period of tax deferment and repayment in the manufacturing industry and step up efforts to help enterprises bail out; it was determined that special re-loans and fiscal interest discounts would be supported to support the upgrading and transformation of equipment in some fields; arrangements were made to further stabilize the Foreign trade measures will help the economy consolidate its foundation for recovery.
This regular meeting of the State Council is rich in content and full of policy content.
Step up efforts to provide relief: It is expected to provide another 32 billion yuan in tax refunds to manufacturing companies in the next four months of this year. Specifically, for manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, the “five taxes and two fees” that have been deferred in the early stage will be deferred for another four months after the expiration of the period starting from September 1, involving deferred taxes of 440 billion yuan. At the same time, the newly added value-added tax credits for the manufacturing industry will be refunded immediately after application, and the average arrival time will be shortened to 2 working days. It is expected that another 32 billion yuan in tax refunds will be provided to manufacturing companies in the next four months of this year.
Support banks to actively issue medium- and long-term loans with interest rates no higher than 3.2%. The meeting decided to support banks in updating and renovating equipment in the fourth quarter for manufacturing, small, medium and micro enterprises, etc. at an interest rate of no higher than 3.2%. The People’s Bank of China will provide special re-loans based on 100% of the loan principal. The re-loan amount is 200 billion yuan, with a term of 1 year and can be extended twice.
We will promptly establish a number of new cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones and provide greater support for the construction of overseas warehouses. The meeting pointed out that opening up is China’s basic national policy, and efforts must be made to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment. Ensure the energy use, logistics, etc. of foreign trade enterprises and provide full support when necessary. We will promptly establish a number of new cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones and provide greater support to overseas warehouses. Improve the efficiency of port collection and distribution and ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
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