In 2022, the performance of the PX market will always be outstanding. Since mid-August, the tight supply in the PX market itself has not been alleviated. In addition, the successive attacks of typhoons “Xuanlannuo” and “Meihua” have caused the Yangtze River ports to be closed to shipping. PX arrivals have been restricted, and the PX supply side has continued to support At the same time, international oil prices rebounded during the holidays. With the support of costs and supply, the PX market got off to a good start after the holiday. As of September 12, the CIF China price of PX CFR was US$1,099.33/ton, an increase of 5.40% from the pre-holiday price.
Chart: International PX price trend (unit: US dollars/ton)
PX is a necessity for the production of polyester raw materials. On September 13, the surge in PX brought about a large-scale increase in the domestic polyester raw material market. PTA and ethylene glycol rose by more than 4%. PTA factories took the opportunity to increase prices for shipments. Polyester production and sales Picked up again.
Polyester raw materials:
PX supply and demand bias provides support
On the polyester raw material side, PX supply and demand are generally tight and prices are firm, providing support for PTA costs. In September, PTA equipment continued to undergo maintenance and parking to reduce load, and the daily supply and demand destocking was relatively strong. Specifically, Yisheng Chemical’s 3.75 million tons capacity has been increased from 60% to 80-90% load, Yisheng New Materials’ 7.2 million tons capacity has been increased from 60-70% to 80% capacity, Yadong’s 750,000-ton load capacity has been fully increased, and Sichuan Energy Investment’s 100 The load of 10,000 tons has restarted and resumed and the current load is above 90%. Yizheng 640,000 tons will be inspected for 20 days starting from September 7.
In the early stage, mainstream PTA suppliers stopped operations due to shortage of raw materials and reduced their load. The basis spread strengthened significantly and was at a historically high level. The spot processing difference exceeds a thousand yuan, but considering the market’s strong expectations for the recovery of forward PX and PTA supply, it is difficult for the price difference between near and far months to reverse in the short term.
The supply and demand side of ethylene glycol itself continues to improve, and inventory has been continuously reduced in the past month, showing strong performance. Affected by the recent typhoon, some shipping schedules have been delayed, resulting in a sharp decline in ethylene glycol port inventory, which is a strong support for ethylene glycol; after entering the traditional peak season of Gold, Nine and Silver Ten, polyester operating rate rebounded to around 84%, allowing 25% of factories to take delivery The volume continues to increase. The alleviation of the contradiction between supply and demand, coupled with relatively low valuations, has increased the bullish sentiment on ethylene glycol. With the apparent increase in the willingness to replenish shorts in the early stage, the market fluctuated and rose.
The inventory of a large factory in East China dropped for half a month
The polyester market is taking a breather, and weaving stocks lack power to suppress
From the perspective of the polyester market, the downstream polyester production has been steadily increasing recently. The end of the power shortage wave in East China and the appropriate terminal demand for replenishment have driven the recent polyester production to increase and the product destocking cycle. The inventory of major factories in East China has increased from the previous 40-day high. It has been reduced to the current 25 days or so, and the industry’s operating load has improved significantly month-on-month.
However, compared with polyester factories, downstream weaving is slightly less powerful, with the operating rate hovering around 60%. It is understood that most of the current downstream orders are concentrated in large weaving factories. The startup load of large weaving factories is at a high level and orders have a certain delivery date. Small weaving factories are under greater operating pressure, with intermittent orders and repeated startups and shutdowns. Judging from the current price of gray fabrics, the trend is weak. Most of them are around the break-even point, and some small factories still have certain losses. At present, in Foshan, Cunyuan Road, Rongchang Road, Langbao Industrial Park and other places have seen a significant increase in receipts and shipments compared with the previous month, and there are occasional congestions. According to feedback from local merchants, the current orders are mainly due to orders received in the early stage, and the number of new orders received is insufficient. Since weaving mills mainly determine production based on sales, subsequent purchases are expected to decline. However, the current stocking days for raw materials in the weaving process are concentrated in 10-20 days. The inventory pressure of gray fabrics is still high in some areas.
Merchants have different opinions on the market outlook. Some merchants expect that the peak season this year will not change too much, and may continue the current trend and gradually weaken; some merchants place their hopes on spring and summer orders, believing that if the downstream spring and summer brands can be sold in October, With centralized orders, the market may still improve.
Overall, although there are certain orders placed in the market at present, the order volume is not large. Most of them are autumn and winter orders, and the continuity is not strong. There is a lack of large orders in the market. The average order is only about 70% of previous years. The operating conditions of weaving manufacturers are also poor. More differentiated. The varieties of yarn orders are relatively concentrated, and only a few varieties can be sold. Although the short-term profits are good, due to the continuous losses in the early stage, some small factories are still under tight financial pressure and operating pressure. Therefore, the current mentality of selling goods is strong. I hope to cash out the profits as soon as possible. It is expected that the “Golden Nine” will continue the status quo, with mostly stable and volatile trends. In the latter part of the peak season, we need to pay attention to the order situation in spring and summer.
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