[Introduction] The demand for “Silver Ten” is less than expected. Since the holiday, polyester filament has first increased and then declined. Winter orders are coming to an end, and demand has further declined. Polyester filament will enter a state of price and no market in advance.
Since the National Day holiday, the polyester filament market has experienced a roller coaster trend. At the beginning of the holiday, the market trading atmosphere was deserted, and the market was basically in a price-free stage. As oil prices continue to rise and polymerization costs increase, polyester filament quotations have also been gradually raised. Downstream Users were concerned about the increase in purchasing costs in the future and moderately replenished their positions. During the holidays, the volume and price of polyester filament yarns rose during the holidays. However, due to the lack of demand support, after the polyester filament experienced a brief upward adjustment after the holidays, the market began to decline. As inventory pressure increased, the decline gradually turned from dark to bright.
Data source: Longzhong Information
Since the beginning of this year, there has been no concentrated increase in demand for terminal textiles. Even during the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver Ten”, the terminal order volume is far less than the same period in previous years. However, after the National Day holiday, the epidemic has a recurring trend, and residential demand for non-essential varieties Gradually declining, polyester filament yarn has not been destocked during the peak season. On the contrary, due to the rapid growth of new production capacity in recent years, the contradiction between market supply and demand has been highlighted, and the inventory of polyester filament manufacturers has reached a high point during the year.
Data source: Longzhong Information
As usual, the sales of polyester filament DTY are good in autumn and winter. As the main raw material for winter clothing, the demand for elastic yarn has picked up in September in previous years, and corporate inventories have also dropped to the lowest level in the year. During the same period, cash flow has also been at a high level during the year. However, At present, elastic yarn prices have continued to decline since the second half of the year, cash flow has been continuously compressed, and the power restriction policy has forced the industry’s operating rate to drop to around 60%. At the end of the third quarter, with the end of the power restriction policy, the turn-on rate of texturing increased slightly. However, the overall turn-on rate currently remains at 60-70%, and some small and medium-sized texturing manufacturers are still in parking or low-load operation mode. Specifically, as of October 13, the comprehensive operating rate of texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 68.6%, a decrease of 3.6% from last week. At the end of the National Day holiday, driven by the cost side, the price of polyester filament rose, and the price of elastic yarn also rose slightly. The enthusiasm of texturing factories to start operations increased. Then the terminal demand gradually declined after the holiday. Early orders were delivered one after another, and some texturing manufacturers’ orders have gradually been reduced. However, the willingness to produce inventory at the end of the year is not strong, so after the holiday, small texturing plants have reduced their load. The operating rate of the downstream weaving industry is also at a low level in the past. Some weaving manufacturers are on holiday during the holidays. The overall operating rate after the holiday is slightly lower than that before the holiday by 0.6% to 61.9%. The market transactions are mainly for thermal insulation series fabrics. Most downstream users reported that although they have certain consumption expectations for Double Eleven and Christmas orders, considering factors such as consumption downgrade, the mentality of the terminal textile and apparel market is bearish. Currently, the replenishment orders for some down cold-proof fabrics in autumn and winter have been issued in small quantities, but they are significantly narrower than in previous years. In terms of weaving, the inventory of conventional gray fabrics is still high, so weaving companies are expected to start holiday mode at the end of December.
Taken together, terminal demand may be exhausted in advance, and the supply pressure of polyester filament is highlighted. As inventories continue to grow, companies may reduce burdens and avoid risks, and expand the scale of production reductions. At the same time, many companies promote shipments in advance and are safe.
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