The temperature is gradually dropping, and the silver ten is in urgent need of support in the market, but the recovery of polyester load is still greatly limited. On the one hand, the external situation is tight, there is a lack of incremental foreign orders, and domestic trade consumption is slowly increasing; on the other hand, polyester is under great pressure to suffer losses, and high inventory continues to be under pressure. As of October 8, the polyester load reached 83.22%, a slight increase of 0.22 percentage points from the pre-holiday load.
Weaving companies still have orders to execute, but new orders and large orders are limited. The market has gradually shifted to the production of conventional products or mainly bulk orders and small orders. During the National Day, some companies have reduced production suspensions. Although the continued rise in oil prices has driven the release of some buying orders, However, the market load still declined to 62.46%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points.
At the same time, looking at the whole year of 2022, the growth rate of downstream demand for polyester is lower than expected, and the market supply pressure is relatively high, which inhibits the release of new polyester production capacity. In the first quarter of 2022, the release of new polyester production capacity hit a new high in the same period in the past five years. Starting from the second quarter, the new polyester production capacity declined year-on-year. By the third quarter, although the new polyester production capacity increased year-on-year, the new number was at a relatively low level in recent years. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, as of the end of September 2022, of the 14 new polyester plants, only 3 were not leading polyester plants. Among the new polyester production capacity, the new polyester filament production capacity accounts for a relatively high proportion of 52.5%, and the new polyester staple fiber production capacity accounts for the second place, at 26.37%. Therefore, the supply pressure on the polyester and polyester market is also relatively high. big. Considering the current supply and demand status of the polyester market, combined with the future industrial chain layout of leading polyester factories, it is expected that the start-up of new polyester production capacity will be relatively cautious in the fourth quarter, and the start-up of multiple new polyester production capacities may be delayed.
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the downward pressure on the global economy has increased, and the growth momentum has significantly weakened. Especially in the major export markets of polyester and downstream, economic growth has slowed severely, bringing unprecedented challenges to Chinese polyester companies. It is expected that in 2023, polyester companies will have to face a more severe competitive landscape. Under the current situation of low gross profit and low operating load, they will improve the industry’s self-control capabilities by adjusting production supply, controlling corporate inventory, and rationally promoting the launch of new production capacity. , to promote the orderly development of the polyester industry. Affected by this, it is expected that the pace of new production capacity in the polyester market will gradually slow down in the future.
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