Introduction: In 2022, multiple domestic polyester devices will be put into production, the production capacity base will be expanded, and the domestic oversupply situation will gradually emerge. However, the economic recession and the impact of the epidemic situation have hindered the recovery of the end market and made it difficult for demand growth. In 2023, there will still be new production capacity entering the Chinese polyester market. Coupled with the postponement of some devices that will be put into production in 2022, the domestic supply pressure cannot be underestimated.
In 2023, China’s polyester industry will have about 9.23 million tons of new production capacity put into production, including 4.5 million tons of polyester filament, 1.73 million tons of polyester short fiber, and 3 million tons of bottle flakes. It is expected that the production capacity base will increase to About 80.74 million tons per year, production capacity increased by about 12.91% year-on-year. There are still great uncertainties in the market such as macroeconomic and policy adjustments, and the production may not be fully realized, but the supply pressure caused by the continued expansion of domestic production capacity will be more prominent.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Since polyester will have new production capacity in East China, North China, and South China in 2023, the distribution of domestic production capacity will be more balanced. However, the supply and demand game in the domestic polyester market will continue in 2023, and the competitive pressure between polyester factories will expand. In addition, the gross profit of the polyester industry has been low in recent years, especially polyester filament, which only made considerable profits in the first quarter of 2022. Starting from the second quarter, the period of losses is far longer than the period of profit. The originally relatively regular equipment maintenance plan has changed, and there will be multiple large-scale production cuts in short fiber and filament in 2022. Then in 2023, the supply of the domestic polyester industry will be under obvious pressure, the device capacity utilization rate may not change much compared with 2022, and the industry prosperity will be difficult to significantly improve.
In terms of exports, according to customs data, from January to November 2022, the cumulative export volume of polyester was about 8.57 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.02%. In 2022, the polyester market price has been ups and downs, with an overall sharp decline, and the industry atmosphere is sluggish. In addition, the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated greatly in 2022. The price of shipping containers has skyrocketed in the first half of the year, and participation has declined, which has also created a certain restraint on exports. As domestic production capacity continues to expand, the self-sufficiency rate will increase, and the proportion of polyester exports will continue to increase in 2023.
With the recovery of terminal consumer demand in 2023, leading companies will achieve faster recovery; coupled with the gradual return of overseas orders after the full liberalization of entry and exit, as well as changes in the national epidemic policy, there will still be inquiries from upstream customers at the end of the year. , the situation of placing an order. At the same time, textile traders also said that foreign merchants who are not celebrating the Spring Festival are still making inquiries and placing orders. Therefore, the beginning of 2023 is expected to have a good start. However, against the backdrop of continued expansion of production capacity and shrinking demand in Europe, the United States and domestic markets, the supply-side pressure on the polyester industry will remain unabated in 2023.
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