Crude oil prices rebounded slightly on the 17th, and sentiment in the energy sector recovered. The main contract of PTA futures increased its position, with an increase of more than 3%. In the polyester sector, in addition to PTA, the main contract of short fiber futures also rose by more than 2% on the 17th.
“After experiencing the risk events of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse’s thunderstorm, crude oil prices plummeted, polyester’s cost support was weak, and market panic spread, the polyester sector followed suit. But on Thursday, Wall Street began to help itself and boosted US stocks, US stocks have expanded their gains, market panic has eased slightly, crude oil prices have stopped falling, and the pressure on polyester on the cost side has temporarily eased.” said Zhang Xiufeng and Zhang Xuanyu, chemical researchers at Cinda Futures.
Yang Sijia, a polyester researcher at Xinhu Futures, believes that the polyester sector rose sharply yesterday. On the one hand, macro risks have eased, crude oil has stopped falling, and the cost-side PX is stronger; on the other hand, PTA has recently been destocked, and spot liquidity is tight. .
Dai Yifan, director of energy and chemical research at the Nanhua Research Institute, said that the improvement in macro sentiment has triggered a rebound in overall commodities, coupled with the recent rebound in crude oil. The pricing of aromatics is anchored in the demand for gasoline blending in the United States, and the recent trend of seasonal reduction in U.S. gasoline inventories has made aromatics Price performance remains strong. PX had more maintenance in the second quarter and the supply was tight. PTA’s recent inventory was neutral and continued to decline as demand improved. The supply and demand pattern improved.
The reporter found that in the polyester sector, the price increase of the near-month contract was greater than that of the far-month contract.
Yang Sijia believes that the increase in the PTA near-month contract is higher than that of the far-month contract, and the monthly difference has strengthened significantly, mainly because the near-end spot liquidity is tight. The March contract delivery, mainstream suppliers repurchase spot, further aggravates the tight spot situation, supporting the near-end spot liquidity. The monthly contract price, while the far-month contract is suppressed by negative factors such as macro expectations, demand sustainability, and production launch.
“The ‘Gold, Three and Silver’ have arrived, and the demand in recent months has been significantly greater.” Zhang Xiufeng and Zhang Xuanyu said that from the perspective of polyester operating rate, there has been a significant and continuous increase after February, and the end-use season demand Spring and summer clothing orders have kept the operating rate of downstream looms at a high level, boosting confidence in the industry chain. So far, the operating rate of polyester has reached 89.4%. In addition, although the operating rate of polyester continues to rise, the number of new orders is still small, mostly spring and summer orders, and subsequent acceptance is limited. Moreover, due to the rapid addition of new installations on the supply side of polyester in the second half of the year, the market has confidence in the price of Yuanyue. Insufficient, resulting in the price increase of the near-month contract being greater than that of the far-month contract.
Dai Yifan said that although some major PTA manufacturers have gradually restarted recently, the actual product volume has not yet been realized. There has been short-term spot tension and limited shipments. Major manufacturers have shown signs of actively shrinking liquidity, and supply and demand were tight in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, with the large-scale production of PX and PTA, and the product volume gradually landing, the surplus is expected to be strong, making the formal pattern more significant.
Judging from the current fundamental situation, Yang Sijia analyzed that PTA will destock its warehouses in early March. However, the operating rate has increased recently and the extent of destocking will be reduced in late March. There will be equipment maintenance in April. If polyester production remains high, the overall supply and demand of PTA will be tight. Cost-end PX has many maintenance plans starting from April, and supply and demand are also destocking. In addition, overseas gasoline profit preferences also have strong support for PX. Therefore, PTA fundamentals favor. In terms of short fiber, current terminal orders are not good, own supply remains high, inventory pressure is high, warehouse receipts are also high, spot profits have been compressed to a loss situation, supply and demand are weak, and price trends are mainly affected by cost-side PTA.
Dai Yifan believes that the supply and demand of PTA was tight in the second quarter, and more production was put into production in the second half of the year, so the supply was excessive; the supply and demand of short fiber was tight in the second quarter, inventory was low, and factories had strong pricing power. The latter pattern is more dependent on the strength of demand recovery.
“The factors currently dominating the polyester market are mainly cost-side speculation caused by demand recovery and periodic supply tensions.” Dai Yifan said that the demand recovery in the first half of the year was less than expected, and it is difficult for polyester production to improve again, and the supply problem is periodic. Tight, PX is undergoing maintenance, and PTA is in a state of restarting and increasing the load, making PX tight, and PX’s profits are rapidly expanding. Judging from the current profit level, it may cause PX maintenance to be postponed. The profit margin provided by the raw material side is relatively high. Under the expectation of medium and long-term surplus, profits may be compressed. Later, we need to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and PX and demand situation on the cost side.
Yang Sijia said that with the completion of March contract delivery and the phased increase in operating rates, the tight spot situation of PTA will be eased, and the trend of widening monthly differences is expected to come to an end. However, since PTA and PX have maintenance plans in April, the price The support is still strong, and the market outlook needs to pay attention to whether the demand-side polyester production can remain high. From the perspective of terminal demand, domestic demand improved significantly in the first quarter. However, orders are currently weakening, and external demand continues to be weak. It is difficult to increase weaving operations and may decline in the later period. We need to pay attention to whether the negative demand feedback will be transmitted. to the polyester link. In terms of short fiber, supply and demand are weak, but profits have been lost. The price in the future will mainly follow PTA. In the future, we need to pay attention to whether companies have any action to reduce production.
“The polyester sector is still under great pressure in the later period.” Zhang Xiufeng and Zhang Xuanyu said,On the one hand, the Fed’s interest rate hike is still a deterministic factor, and the financial pressure in Europe and the United States has not been eliminated, and the support for crude oil prices is insufficient; on the other hand, the demand side of polyester is insufficient, with high inventory and insufficient terminal orders. The polyester end has insufficient upside. In the future, PTA supply and demand are showing a weakening trend, processing fees have been repaired recently, demand-side varieties have lower profits, the decline in polyester inventory is not strong, and the operating rate has a significant slowdown trend, and export orders are insufficient. In March and April In March, the operating rate of polyester is expected to remain stable, but after the peak season, prices may be under pressure. PTA prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and bearish in the medium and long term. The production and sales of short fiber have been weak recently, the downstream operating rate has not increased, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the price of short fiber will mainly follow the fluctuation of raw materials. In the case of weak fundamentals, the short-term operation will be oscillating.
Pang Chunyan, chief analyst of SDIC Essence Futures Chemicals, analyzed that from the perspective of supply expectations, three new PTA units with a total capacity of 7.5 million tons are planned to be put into operation in the near future. The spot supply tends to be loose, but the upstream PX unit has reported a new 2.6 million-ton unit from Guangdong Petrochemical. The load has been reduced to 60%. The April restart plan of Hainan Refinery’s 1 million tons PX unit has been postponed. The supply of PX is tighter than expected, which may once again become a supply bottleneck in the PTA market. Overall, the PTA market faces pressure from a substantial increase in supply in the long term. However, in the short term, due to the expected contraction of PX supply and the discount on expectations of increased PTA production, prices rebounded rapidly, and both basis and monthly spreads performed strongly.
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