In the early stage, due to better U.S. economic data, increased market expectations for interest rate hikes, and the impact of thunderstorms in the European and American banking industries last week, crude oil prices have fallen sharply recently. From the high point on March 6 to last Friday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures They fell by about 17% and 15% respectively; while PTA also fell during the same period, the decline was obviously limited. The futures 2305 contract only fell by 6.8% from the highest point on March 8 to the lowest point on March 16. As of last Friday night It closed down only 2.2%; the CCF PTA spot price index’s maximum decline during the same period was only 4.7%, and the decline as of last Friday was only 2.5%. During the same period, the spot basis expanded significantly, from 2305+65 on the 8th to +145 last Friday. With such strength, it has become a “star” in the chemical sector futures.
Despite such strong price performance, PTA’s benefits have shown a trend of compression. On March 8, the spot processing difference of PTA was around 450 yuan/ton, and further expanded to around 467 on the 10th. However, paper goods had been compressed to less than 290 yuan/ton last Friday. The high point compression is 38%. Basically, most devices in the industry are already at a loss, which is a true “losing money and making money”.
Since it is not listed on futures, PX is relatively less popular than PTA, but it is a low-key “real star” in this round, with stronger prices and expanded benefits:
In the cycle from March 6 to 17, PX prices rose by nearly 1%, and PXN expanded by 39%, rising to more than $400/ton, a new high since October 10, 2022. PX is the one who makes money silently.
In early trading on the 20th, the main PTA contract expanded during the day, hitting the daily limit to 5,948 yuan/ton, an increase of 6%, which has reached a new high this year. The spot market basis showed strong performance. In mid-April, the supply was traded at 05+190, and the 5-9 basis expanded to above 470.
From a fundamental point of view, the cost-side support is relatively strong. WTI prices have dropped from a high of 80.94 to 67-68 US dollars/barrel. However, the recent performance of PX has been relatively strong. Due to the intensive equipment maintenance plan in the second quarter, PX supply and demand have tightened, superimposing the recent Some PTA factories have purchased spot goods. PXN expanded to $416/ton. PX prices closed at $1,047/ton last Friday, the highest point in the month. In addition, a refinery in East China recently reduced its load due to an accident, and its 4 million tons of PX load is expected to drop to around 70%. The current initial estimate is about 2-3 weeks, and bullish factors continue to ferment.
From PTA’s own perspective, with the expansion of Yisheng, Fuhai Chuang’s load increase, and the restart of Hengli Petrochemical 1, the operating rate has rebounded to 80.7%, and Honggang Petrochemical is expected to restart in March, with the load further increasing. After the new Hengli Huizhou plant is put into operation, the increase will be gradually reflected. However, with the PX maintenance in the later period, some supporting or adjacent PTA equipment will also have planned maintenance. If polyester is maintained, there will be no accumulation pressure on PTA for the time being.
As raw material costs rise, there are more calls to reduce polyester production.
Starting from the 21st, some factories have released news one after another, stating that they plan to start reducing production in the near future, and some factories have already reduced production appropriately; in terms of product types, currently they mainly involve filament, staple fiber and chips.
PTA main company
The direct reason for the factory’s production reduction is losses. Starting last week, the book profits of polyester products have been rapidly compressed. At present, except for bottle flakes, other varieties are basically losing money across the board, and the larger ones have already lost more than 400 yuan.
Book benefits of polyester products
Behind the losses, on the one hand, is the strength of raw materials, on the other hand, it implies caution about demand. CCF Comments Section – “Polyester load is close to peaking, start paying attention to demand inflection point” article once mentioned that March may already be the best time for industry demand, but filament and short fiber factories are facing difficulties in reducing inventory ( Considering the pressure of inventory), we dare not raise prices rashly and have been operating carefully near the profit and loss line or even at a slight loss. And when raw materials rise beyond expectations, it is inevitable that book losses will expand.
Polyester Industry Chain Market Daily 3.22
PTA: basis falling
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Yesterday, polyester FDY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rose partially by 50-100, with discounts discussed. In addition to Hengli’s partial increase of 100, Huaya made up for the increase of 50-100 yesterday and reported stable today, and Xinxin Youguang increased by 50, such as Hengyi, Rongsheng, Tongkun, Xinfengming, Tiansheng, Shenghong, Jiabao, Tianlong, Sanfangxiang, Yuanlong, etc. all reported stable.
Yesterday, DTY prices of major manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rose by 50%, and discounts were negotiated. Except for Tongkun, which rose by 50%, and Xinfengming, which rose by 50%, stocks such as Shenghong, Hengyi, Rongsheng, Kaishi, Xinghui, and Senkai all reported stable. The price of small and medium-sized elastic DTY is stable, and the market transaction atmosphere is weak.
Production and sales: The overall production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were still weak yesterday, with an average estimate of 30% to 40% by around 3 p.m. The production and sales of several factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were at 65%, 70%, 35%, 20%, 75%, 30%, 30% %, 20%, 20%, 0%, 30%, 60%, 0%, 0%, 0%, 30%, 20%, 10%, 30%, 10%, 50%.
Market outlook: Yesterday, the price of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rose by 50-100 yuan partially, and the overall production and sales were still weak. The spot price of PTA fell back during the day, the basis spread fell, and the cost of polyester raw materials fell; the recent terminal quarterly orders continued to weaken month-on-month, and construction starts in some areas fell, but the extent was temporarily limited. The rigid demand for polyester yarn remained at a high level, but the downstream supply continued to increase after continuous supply. After the goods are released, in the short term, digestion and stocking will be the main focus. Polyester prices are expected to remain stable and negotiated. The market outlook will focus on the sustainability of the rise of PX and PTA and the situation of terminal orders.
Polyester slices: making a family light
Market performance: Polyester raw material futures fell slightly during the day. Today’s polyester chip factory quotations are stable and the trading atmosphere is light. Semi-gloss mainstream prices are quoted at 6750-6850 yuan/ton, and glossy mainstream prices are quoted at 6800-6950 yuan/ton. Some are slightly slightly lower. High and slightly low, let’s discuss the real offer.
Transaction situation: The transaction volume of polyester chips is light, with sporadic urgent needs buying mainly. The mainstream price of semi-gloss is 6750-6800 yuan/ton in cash. Some second-tier brands are slightly lower around 6700. Several small orders in Xiaoshao market are priced at 6750 yuan/ton in cash. Or send it to the transaction; the mainstream price of Youguang is 6800-6850 yuan/ton in cash, and some second-tier brands are slightly lower, and the transactions are mainly small orders.
Market outlook: High fluctuations in upstream raw materials have intensified, and terminal demand has been average. Recently, due to efficiency issues, production reductions in slicing devices have increased. It is expected that short-term polyester chip prices will fluctuate widely in line with costs. Pay attention to upstream raw material price fluctuations, polyester production reductions, and terminal orders.
Polyester bottle flakes: the price is strong
Internal trading: polyester raw material futures fluctuated within a narrow range, and polyester bottle flake factory quotations remained stable overall. There is still a large difference in transaction levels for polyester bottle chips, but the market’s low prices have converged, and the overall transaction focus has increased. The negotiation range of polyester bottle flake factories remains at 7,600-7,750 yuan/ton ex-factory, with individual quotations reaching 7,850 yuan/ton ex-factory. However, only a small number of transactions were made at the high level, and some prices were slightly lower than 7,450 yuan/ton ex-factory in May. The mainstream negotiation transaction range from March to April ranges from 7,400-7,630 yuan/ton ex-factory. The selling prices of different brands vary greatly. Some are slightly higher at 7,750 yuan/ton ex-factory, while those from May to June are slightly lower at 7,320-7,330 yuan/ton ex-factory. No wait.
Export: The export quotation of polyester bottle flakes factory is stable. The negotiation range of mainstream bottle flake factories in East China ranges from 1,000-1,020 US dollars/ton FOB Shanghai Port. Some are slightly lower, and some are slightly higher than 1,030 US dollars/ton FOB Shanghai Port. There are slight differences depending on the brand; the negotiation range in South China is 990-1,020. USD/ton FOB main port varies, and discounts can be negotiated based on the overall volume.
Market outlook: The cost of polyester raw materials has fallen within a narrow range during the day, and polyester factories have continued to have tight supply in recent months. Factories are reluctant to sell at high prices, and the market price of polyester bottle flakes remains strong in the short term. However, the overall demand performance is slightly average, and there is insufficient follow-up from high-priced downstream companies. The price difference between traders and bottle flake factories may further expand in the short term; in terms of exports, pay attention to changes in peripheral crude oil, RMB exchange rates, and shipping freight.
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