Since late March, Zheng cotton has started a shock and rebound rhythm. On the one hand, it has stimulated cotton processing companies to speed up the sales of lint cotton; on the other hand, Xinjiang cotton basis difference and fixed-price purchases have slowed down in 2022/23. As the CF2305 contract shock range moves up to 14,500-15,000 yuan/ton, there are increasing disagreements about the high point of this round of futures rebound. Many institutions and cotton-related companies believe that it is more likely to reach the annual high of 15,275 yuan/ton. . Therefore, in the current cotton spot market, the two phenomena of accelerating the “destocking” of lint cotton and “holding goods for sale” coexist.
The author believes that under the background of the overall rebound of peripheral commodities (especially the outstanding performance of petroleum, energy, chemicals, etc.), capital speculation on cotton planting area in 2023 and the weather in main cotton-producing areas, and domestic demand orders can still support the high start-up rate of cotton textile enterprises , the probability of Zheng Cotton CF2305 contract testing 15,000 yuan/ton or periodically breaking 15,000 yuan/ton exists objectively, but it is recommended that cotton processing enterprises gradually start in batches in the 14,500-15,000 yuan/ton range (CF2309 contract 15,000-15,500 yuan/ton) Increase hedging efforts to avoid the risk of wide fluctuations in cotton prices in the future.
Cotton-related companies, institutions, and investors need to pay attention to the following negative factors in the short term:
First, it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate hikes in May. On April 4, local time, Loretta? Mester said the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again to curb inflation. In order to achieve the long-term goal of keeping the inflation rate down to 2%, the United States will continue to tighten monetary policy this year and the federal funds rate will be raised to above 5%.
Second, from the current point of view, the weather is getting warmer and the soil moisture is better. Spring sowing in northern and southern Xinjiang has begun in late March. The year-on-year decrease in cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2023 is expected to be low. A survey by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System shows that the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease by 2.3% year-on-year in 2023, lacking a basis for speculation.
Third, there are currently big doubts about whether domestic textile and clothing orders can be sustained until May. Judging from the survey, a large number of cotton textile mills do not have many new orders and lack sustainability. Most orders are placed around the end of April. Whether consumption can support Zheng Cotton CF2305 contract to remain above 15,000 is full of uncertainty. Enterprises in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reported that since late March, the operating rates of some weaving and knitting factories have gradually peaked and declined. In addition to 50S and 60S high-count yarns, the procurement of C32S and below ring spinning and OE yarns Significantly slowing down.
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