Strategy summary
Overseas maintenance increased in April, and import expectations remain low. Domestic maintenance volume in April was revised upward, but downstream polyester is expected to fall slightly in the future. The monthly frequency will move from the destocking cycle in March to the slight destocking or supply and demand balance stage in April; weekly port inventory continues to consolidate in a high range. The short-term driver is not strong, and the tendency is to go short and hedge on rallies, and the space below is linked to the rate of coal price decline.
core ideas
■ Market analysis
In terms of basis, the basis of EG Zhangjiagang is -15 yuan/ton (4).
In terms of operating rate, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol this week was 55.18% (a decrease of 5.25% from the previous period), of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 51.81% (a decrease of 2.63% from the previous period). Gulei Petrochemical (70) has been restarted after being suspended. Liaoning Northern Chemical (20) improved by 20%. Far East United (50) lost 20%. Hengli First Line (90) has been shut down for maintenance as planned. In terms of coal chemical industry, the restart plan of Qianxi Coal Chemical Industry (30) was postponed. Guangxi Huayi (20) has restarted after the suspension. Anhui Haoyuan (30) is operating at half load. Overseas, Hanwha Total Petrochemical (12) plans to conduct maintenance for one and a half months at the end of April. LG Dashan (13) plans to undergo maintenance in mid-May. Petronas (75) stopped again, restart pending. US South Asia (83) is operating at 70% capacity.
In terms of downstream demand, this week the weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 66% (-5%), the elastic load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 71% (-13%), the polyester load was 88.9% (-1.5%), and the direct spinning filament load was 83.7% (-1.4 %), POY inventory days are 17.8 days (1), FDY inventory days are 19.9 days (0.4), DTY inventory days are 26.5 days (1.3), polyester shorts factory operating rate is 84% (-1%), polyester shorts factory equity inventory days are 12.2 Day (1.4), the bottle tablet factory operating rate was 90% (-1.4%).
In terms of inventory, Longzhong EG port inventory is 1.057 million tons (2.7), and EG is slightly accumulated.
■ Strategy
Overseas maintenance increased in April, and import expectations remain low. Domestic maintenance volume in April was revised upward, but downstream polyester is expected to fall slightly in the future. The monthly frequency will move from the destocking cycle in March to the slight destocking or supply and demand balance stage in April; weekly port inventory continues to consolidate in a high range. The short-term driver is not strong, and the tendency is to go short and hedge on rallies, and the space below is linked to the rate of coal price decline.
risk
Crude oil price fluctuations, coal price fluctuations, and downstream demand recovery.
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