Data source: Compiled by Kpler and Longzhong Information
Despite multiple rounds of EU sanctions against Russia, Russian seaborne crude oil flows have remained strong and have returned to levels before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In March, Russia’s crude oil export volume was 3.935 million barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 6.99%. The export volume of crude oil and petroleum products rose to the highest level since April 2020, with a surge of 600,000 barrels per day. According to the latest Kpler, Russia’s seaborne crude oil shipments were 3.97 million barrels per day in the week of April 10, an increase of 7.07% from the previous week and an increase of 11.61% from the week before the war broke out on February 24 last year. Oil shipments at ports in western Russia in April will rise to their highest level since 2019, exceeding 2.4 million barrels per day, according to trade and shipping sources, despite Russia’s pledge to cut output. Russia’s crude oil exports and transit from the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk will exceed 10 million tons in April, an increase of 300,000 tons from March. Exports of Urals crude from Primorsk will amount to about 4.4 million tons, while the Ust-Luga port will load 3 million tons of Russian Urals crude and Kazakhstani KEBCO crude. A total of approximately 2.7 million tons of Urals crude oil, KEBCO crude oil and Siberian light crude oil are shipped at the Novorossiisk port.
Data source: Compiled by Kpler and Longzhong Information
In the four weeks ending April 10, in terms of Russian export destinations, exports to my country and India still accounted for an absolute advantage, reaching 2.666 million barrels per day, accounting for 92.74% of the total export volume. And Russia’s European market share has all but disappeared, replaced by more expensive and longer long-distance destinations in Asia. Any decline in Russian oil production will initially be offset by reduced refinery demand during seasonal maintenance, and reduced pipeline traffic to Europe will also increase seaborne crude shipments. In the week of April 10, seaborne crude oil exports to European countries were 820,000 barrels per day. Crude oil exports to Nordic countries remained at 0, and Turkey is the only destination for Russian seaborne crude oil entering the Mediterranean, with crude oil exports at 208,600 barrels per day.
Overall, despite the multiple rounds of EU sanctions since last year, Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports have so far increased instead of falling, and have returned to pre-conflict levels. Although Russia began to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day in March and promised in early April to extend the reduction until the end of the year, the actual export volume has not affected the supply to the market. Therefore, the stage when Russia provides positive support to oil prices is when it releases news and remarks about production cuts, and its current impact on international crude oil prices is limited.
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