Introduction: Entering 2023, the PX industry chain market will fluctuate and rise. The main reason is that it is boosted by macroeconomic favorable conditions, especially the end of the epidemic in China. Domestic chemical products have generally recovered. The price of the industry chain has strengthened under the guidance of the cost end. The supply of downstream PTA has been tight, leading to prices. It has repeatedly hit new highs this year. Polyester products rose simultaneously, but the overall increase was not as strong as that of raw material PTA, so profits were greatly compressed.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
PX market review in the first quarter
In the first quarter of 2023, the Asian PX market fluctuated and rose. As of the end of the first quarter, the closing price of CFR China PX was US$1,103/ton, which was US$156/ton higher than the end of the previous quarter, an increase of 16.47%. Crude oil fluctuated widely in early January, with little impact on costs. However, due to the relaxation of China’s epidemic policies, merchants are generally optimistic about the prospects of the Chinese market. PX spot purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the sentiment of the industrial chain is optimistic. The performance of crude oil and the general environment in February was weak. In addition, Holders are worried about the commissioning of new equipment, and there is a sentiment of understanding about profits. The market sentiment has turned from strong to weak. In March, Huizhou Refining and Chemical’s 940,000 tons/year PX unit began maintenance, and there are expectations for the new PTA unit to be put into operation. The market has shown a certain resilience. , starting from the middle of the month, the downstream PTA market has been tight on spot, merchants have speculated, and the enthusiasm for PX procurement has increased. In addition, foreign demand for oil adjustment is good, aromatics plants are not operating at a high rate, and domestic PX maintenance equipment is intensive in April. The market takes the opportunity to link up with downstream promotion. rise.
PX new production capacity table in the second quarter
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
PX market forecast for the second quarter
From the perspective of crude oil: Russia has reduced crude oil production and exports by more than 500,000 barrels per day since March, while the United States will release 26 million barrels of crude oil strategic reserves again from April, and the crude oil supply is temporarily stable. With the arrival of the Asian crude oil peak season, especially at the end of May, the United States has also entered the peak crude oil consumption season, and global crude oil demand is bound to gradually increase. On the premise that the supply side has not fundamentally changed, there will be a situation in which supply exceeds demand, and oil prices are also expected to rise by then. In the second quarter, international oil prices may show a trend of stabilizing first and then rising.
From the demand side, the operating rate of domestic PTA remains at around 80.13%. The main PTA suppliers still purchase spot goods from outside, and the liquidity of PTA spot goods is tight. Stimulated by the repair of processing fees, it cannot be ruled out that the early parking device will be restored. Overall Supply may rebound, thus increasing demand for PX.
It is expected that the PX market will mainly fluctuate in the range in the second quarter. Currently, several domestic PX units are still under maintenance. From April to May, Liaoyang Petrochemical, Urumqi Petrochemical, and Luoyang Petrochemical all have maintenance plans. The supply will continue to shrink, especially in the second quarter, several downstream PTA units There is a plan to put the device into production, and the demand for PX will increase. The holders are optimistic. In addition, the peak season for foreign oil demand is coming, and the international PX market supply is still tight. However, the new 1.6 million tons/year PX device in Ningbo Daxie is about to be put into production, filling part of the maintenance. In addition, the profit of PX production is relatively high, some PX devices may increase the burden, and the terminal demand is difficult to increase. Overall, it is expected that the PX market will mainly digest the increase in the second quarter, and the space for continued growth will be limited.
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