From January to May 2023, the market price of viscose staple fiber has been relatively stable. Taking 1.5D*38mm as an example, its operating range is 12,900~13,100 yuan/ton. In 5 months, the price difference was only 300 yuan/ton, and from February to April, the price center has been at 13,100 yuan/ton, with few price fluctuations in the middle. This is relatively rare in the history of viscose staple fiber prices. Most markets Participants asked: Does this situation indicate that the viscose staple fiber market has entered a dormant period or a recovery period after a sharp decline? The answer to this question needs to be analyzed from the market operation of domestic dissolving pulp, viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn, combined with the market operation of cotton and polyester staple fiber.
01 Domestic dissolving pulp is trading sideways at a low level
According to fiber network statistics, from January to May 2023, the overall operating rate of domestic dissolving pulp was approximately 40%, with a total output of approximately 175,000 tons. The output mainly comes from the long-term contribution of a factory in Hunan that produces dissolving pulp. At the same time, the other factories produce dissolving pulp from after the Spring Festival to mid-April. However, after mid-April, the operating rate of dissolving pulp production capacity gradually decreased, mainly due to the loss of output caused by unplanned shutdowns of some factories. At the same time, after mid-April, some factories that originally produced pulp gradually considered switching to dissolving pulp production due to the continuous decline in pulp prices, which further pushed up the operating rate of domestic dissolving pulp.
From January to May, the operating range of domestic dissolving pulp is 7,200 to 7,500 yuan/ton, and from late January to May, its operating range is 7,200 to 7,300 yuan/ton. The price of dissolving pulp has been trading sideways between 7,200 and 7,300 yuan/ton for a long time. Most participants in the market believe that this is due to the price of dissolving pulp falling from 9,500 yuan/ton in September 2022 to 7,200 yuan/ton in January 2023. The performance of lingering at a low level after that.
Figure 1 Trends in domestic dissolving pulp and paper pulp futures prices
Judging from the price trends of domestic dissolving pulp and pulp futures (see Figure 1), the price of domestic dissolving pulp fell five months earlier than the price of pulp. The price decline of domestic dissolving pulp began in September 2022 and continued until early February 2023; while the price decline of pulp futures began in early February 2023 and continued until early May 2023.
The sideways period before this round of paper pulp decline was from early August 2022 to early February 2023, which lasted for 6 months. The price of domestic dissolving pulp has also gone sideways from January to the end of May 2023. If we benchmark it according to the price trend of paper pulp futures, then at the end of June and early July, the price of dissolving pulp may have gone sideways. of changes.
The current round of domestic dissolving pulp has a falling space of 2,300 yuan/ton, with a range of about 24.21%; the paper pulp futures price has a falling space of 1,910 yuan/ton, with a range of about 27.33%. Therefore, looking at the price trend of dissolving pulp from the perspective of the downward space of paper pulp, the price of dissolving pulp will still be weak in the future.
Since the dissolving pulp production line can flexibly switch between dissolving pulp and papermaking pulp, domestic dissolving pulp factories can choose the pulp type that is beneficial to them for production based on the market and their actual needs. If the price of pulp continues to fall in the future, and the price of dissolving pulp continues to move sideways, then the production of dissolving pulp will likely continue to increase due to its strong market price, but after the production increases, can the market price Continuing to trade sideways or experiencing unusual fluctuations mainly depends on the operation of the viscose staple fiber market.
02 Viscose staple fiber prices and inventory digestion are worrying
Judging from the market price operation of viscose staple fiber in the past year, viscose staple fiber experienced a sharp decline from July 2022 to early January 2023, then rebounded in January 2023, and then rebounded. Until the end of May, it was in a state of sideways trading. From July 2022 to early January 2023, the market price of viscose staple fiber fell by 2,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.74%. Judging from the decline of dissolving pulp, the decline of viscose staple fiber is smaller than that of dissolving pulp; however, looking at the initial time point of the decline, the market price of viscose staple fiber fell nearly 2 months earlier than the market price of dissolving pulp (see Figure 2 ). Therefore, in the “dissolving pulp – viscose staple fiber” link, during this round of price decline, viscose staple fiber has slightly taken the initiative. This is mainly because when viscose staple fiber factories choose dissolving pulp, in addition to domestic dissolving pulp, There are also imported dissolving pulp and paper-to-paper pulp options, so the price of dissolving pulp has dropped significantly compared with the price of viscose staple fiber.
Judging from the release of viscose staple fiber production capacity, it is estimated that the average operating rate of the industry from January to May 2023 will be around 72% to 75%, that is, the output will be approximately 1.56 million to 1.62 million tons. Compared with the same period last year, the overall output will be approximately Nearly 150,000 to 200,000 tons higher. This means that the inventory of viscose staple fiber factories is 150,000 to 200,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Under this situation, it is difficult for the market price of viscose staple fiber to rise out of the same period as the same period last year. In order to reduce inventory due to the beautiful rising market, viscose staple fiber factories have chosen to keep prices sideways and trade time for space for shipments in order to absorb the extra production this year. However, after 5 months, the downstream links have not digested the viscose staple fiber well, causing the market price of viscose staple fiber to remain low in the future.”Limit production and guarantee price” and “exchange time for space”
and other strategies, but in exchange, cotton and polyester staple fibers squeezed the viscose staple fiber market share. If the viscose staple fiber industry does not change this situation, the viscose staple fiber market will still be mainly sideways in the future, which will also lead to further shrinkage in volume and energy; because in addition to the competition among these three major raw materials , Lyocell, as a representative of new cellulose fibers, is expanding its market share. The occurrence of this phenomenon also marks that the three major textile raw materials have their own industrial chain competition and have entered an era in which all textile raw materials compete together; it also marks that the three major textile raw materials have entered a period where traffic is king despite the existing market. The era of industrial Internet. Obviously, in the initial stage, viscose staple fiber has been slightly inferior to the other two varieties, and it is difficult for the viscose staple fiber industry to return to its former glory in the short term. But practitioners should not be too pessimistic, because the physical and chemical properties of viscose determine that its downstream market varieties will continue to be iteratively updated. More than ten years ago, it was mercerized cotton that supported the expansion of the viscose staple fiber market; eight years ago, it was core-spun yarn that supported the expansion of the viscose staple fiber market; five years ago, it was vortex spinning that supported the viscose staple fiber market all the way to today. , which variety will become the next strong support? It remains to be developed with practitioners.
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