After the opening of the daily trading on the 7th, PTA futures increased their positions significantly, breaking through the previous oscillation high. As of the closing, the PTA 2309 contract rose sharply by 144 yuan/ton to 5744 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.57%, setting a new high in the past 2 months. . During the interview, the reporter learned that the 93.3% high polyester load announced last Thursday had boosted market confidence, but such a strong single-day increase exceeded industry expectations.
“The sharp rise in PTA futures last Friday was mainly due to the news that a mainstream domestic supplier’s equipment failed and the loss dropped to 50%. The impact is expected to last a week. In addition, the Yangtze River delivery in the market was also affected to a certain extent due to weather conditions. Overall, on that day, The sharp rise in the market is related to the slight improvement in balance caused by the unplanned maintenance of the equipment.” Liu Siqi, an analyst at Zijin Tianfeng Futures, said that from a macro level, there have been signs of easing in Sino-US relations recently, domestic commodities are generally in a state of recovery in demand, and real estate policies have Relaxation, the Ministry of Commerce has drafted documents to promote household consumption, polyester stocks are low and production is high, and the market terminal still maintains relatively optimistic expectations for demand. In addition, the cost side of crude oil PX has also been supported recently. There will be no new production capacity of PX in the second half of the year, and processing fees will remain high for a long time.
The reporter learned that with the stabilization of domestic macroeconomics, the panic after the sharp decline in the market in the early stage has been released, and the fundamentals of the PTA industry have also been repaired to a certain extent.
According to Chen Sheng, an analyst at Guomao Futures, the high production and high load of polyester have restored confidence in the polyester industry, and the overall inventory of polyester is low. “In particular, some differentiated polyester varieties are oversold, so polyester factories have plans to increase their load in the near future.” In his view, low inventory and high production starts in the polyester market are the biggest driving force behind the recent surge in PTA.
In this regard, Liu Siqi also said that polyester is currently in a state of low inventory and high production. June will gradually enter the off-season. The average monthly operating rate of polyester can reach about 92%. As of July 7, the immediate operating rate of polyester has reached 93.5%. Affected by the epidemic in the same period last year, the operating rate of polyester was only about 84%. Compared with the data of the past five years, the operating rate of polyester is at the upper edge of the same period in the past five years. In her view, the polyester operating rate in the off-season this summer is at a high level for the same period in previous years, and the overall performance is not weak in the off-season.
“Since the operating rate of polyester in January-February and April this year was not high, the production growth of polyester in the first half of the year was not high year-on-year, and most of the increased production was absorbed by high overseas export demand. The average inventory of polyester was Around 15 days, there is not much inventory pressure. The originally expected off-season downstream orders have weakened, and the decline in weaving operations has not yet occurred. With the high operation of looms, purchases are just needed, and there is not much pressure on polyester inventory accumulation.” Liu Siqi said.
It is understood that the PTA spot market is currently in a state of strong supply and demand. The planned maintenance volume of domestic PTA is not large, and there are two sets of equipment for unplanned maintenance. The supply-side output continues to hit new highs, and the demand-side polyester maintains a high start-up of about 93%. Supply and demand Output is at a high level, and the balance sheet is in a state of slight accumulation to slight destocking.
“The maintenance in the past two weeks has increased, and the balance sheet has improved, supporting the strong PTA price.” Liu Siqi said that the maintenance margin has increased in July, Fuhai Chuang has planned maintenance, Sanfang Lane has been overhauled in advance, and Yisheng Hainan has 2 million The load reduction of the ton unit is expected to be reduced for one week for some reason, and Jiaxing Petrochemical may have maintenance plans in July. Among them, the maintenance of Sanfangxiang and Yisheng Hainan were unplanned maintenance. As the maintenance increased, the PTA balance sheet changed from a slight accumulation to a tight balance state.
“Due to the long-term high-load operation of some PTA devices, the market has indeed seen temporary shutdowns of the devices or load reduction maintenance.” Chen Sheng believes that this part of the maintenance has a small impact on the market, and it is basically maintenance within a week. Or reducing the negative impact will have little impact on the supply and demand balance of the PTA market.
In this regard, Pang Chunyan, chief analyst of SDIC Anxin Futures Chemicals, also said that in addition to the 5.7 million-ton long-term shutdown device, the 4.5-million-ton Fuhaichuang device and the 1.2-million-ton Zhongtai device currently under maintenance will all be shut down in mid-July. The restart of Sanfangxiang 1.2 million tons is pending. In addition, the operation of Hainan Yisheng’s 2 million tons unit was reduced for some reasons during the day, and the restart time is uncertain. “Overall, there were more maintenance and restarts in mid-to-late July, but there is no new equipment maintenance plan, so the impact of the unexpected decline in PTA equipment is short-term.” She said.
In her view, PTA supply has declined slightly due to unexpected declines, while demand has remained stable. It is expected that there will be a small destocking dynamic, but there is no significant upward drive yet. “The market outlook will mainly focus on the policy’s boost to the end consumer market. Improved consumption will trigger higher raw material prices, thereby forming a positive feedback in the industrial chain. This may be the logic of a phased rebound in the chemical market in the second half of the year, but the resilience of the polyester industry chain will remain high. It has become more obvious in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, there is still pressure for PTA to start new production, and there is limited room for continued improvement in supply and demand.” Pang Chunyan said.
“Currently, the basis in the PTA spot market remains at around 50. The basis is not strong, and there is no big fluctuation in the monthly spread from August to September. The liquidity of the market spot is relatively abundant.” In Chen Sheng’s view, the upward trend of PTA Support comes from the recent strength of crude oil, coupled with relatively optimistic industry fundamentals, and optimism is expected to continue in the short term.
In the view of He Xiaoqin, senior analyst of Guotai Junan Futures, short-term PTA is still a oscillating market, and the upper space has not yet been opened. It is necessary to see the terminal’s performance in the season before the peak season.Only with adequate reserves can there be a substantial increase in PTA.
“Although we are bullish on the PTA market in the third quarter, the start-up time is slightly earlier than expected. On the current demand side, the hot weather in July and August, coupled with relatively light orders, has led to a phased decline in the start-up of terminal weaving factories. On the supply side, the follow-up Hengli Huizhou 2.5 million tons The equipment has been put into operation, and there is still a lot of new supply.” He Xiaoqin said.
During the interview, the reporter learned that the core contradiction of the PTA market in the third quarter was mainly reflected in the PX side.
“At present, the overall supply and demand of PX is in a stable stage. An accident in the PX device will completely change the driving force of the market. At the same time, downstream inventory begins to accumulate, and negative feedback is unlikely to occur in the short term. Due to the impact of the Asian Games, the overall market demand Expectations are front-loaded.” Chen Sheng believes that the PTA market outlook needs to pay attention to changes in PX equipment and whether negative feedback will occur downstream.
In addition, it is worth noting that in the third quarter, the polyester market will enter the transition period between the off-peak and peak seasons. “Currently, the off-season for consumption is not weak, and there is uncertainty about whether the peak season will be stronger in the future.” Pang Chunyan said that at the same time, we must also pay attention to equipment maintenance. Currently, there are still 22 million tons of equipment that have not undergone annual maintenance. If the maintenance is concentrated, it will inevitably trigger market flow again. Sexual tension concerns.
In He Xiaoqin’s view, the PTA 2309 contract in the third quarter has expectations for polyester replenishment during the peak season, and there may be logistics impacts caused by typhoon weather, traders’ oversold short-filling needs, and cost support caused by the strong cost side of crude oil PX.
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