Recently, the macro level and upstream costs have gradually become the main trading logic of PTA, and the impact of its own supply and demand situation on the market price is gradually weakening. So how far can PTA go in the market outlook under the situation where costs and macro sentiment are both strong?
U.S. gasoline profits remain high
Starting in 2022, the correlation between PTA futures prices and gasoline profits will increase simultaneously. Currently, U.S. gasoline inventories are still at the lowest level in the same period in history. Even if we believe that U.S. gasoline is facing increased supply and demand and a change in winter and summer specifications, EIA gasoline destocking is still continuing, and the economics of oil adjustment are good. In the short term, U.S. gasoline profits remain high and oscillate, which has a positive impact on PTA. There is still some support.
PXN is viewed as strong throughout the year
Whether PXN can remain strong this year has been the focus of the market. If gasoline profits begin to fall in August, it will be negative for PXN. However, from the perspective of PX’s own supply and demand, we believe that there is solid support at the bottom of PXN. First of all, this year’s PX production plan has been completed in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, PX faces zero production, while PTA still has about 500 tons of production plans in the second half of the year, mainly in the fourth quarter. Therefore, PTA’s production is expected to give PX demand brings certain support. Secondly, the PX operating rate has fallen slightly for two consecutive weeks. The current PX load is 79%. In August, with the maintenance of large domestic equipment, the restart of PX equipment was postponed, and the maintenance plan of new equipment increased in September. Finally, many units in countries or regions such as South Korea, Japan, India, and Taiwan have maintenance plans from August to September. The PX load in Asia is 72.4%, and there is expected to be further room for decline. Generally speaking, the economics of aromatics are good, the short-term supply of PX is tight, and the upstream raw material costs are supported in the short term, but there is no clear downward drive yet.
PTA supply and demand have no obvious driver
PTA’s current supply and demand are both strong, and the operating rate remains at a neutral high level of about 80%. The operating rate of downstream polyester is still high and oscillating, and the inventory and processing fees of polyester finished products are acceptable. The macro tone of expanding domestic demand is combined with the seasonal change of autumn and winter. Downstream companies generally report that autumn and winter orders have increased. However, due to the uncertainty of future demand, manufacturers are cautious in stocking up, and the possibility of further decline in polyester load is not high. PTA’s own spot processing fees were compressed to a freezing point in early August and began to gradually recover, but the extent of the recovery was not large. Non-integrated manufacturers still have operating pressures. In the future, the possibility of individual manufacturers reducing production and reducing burdens cannot be ruled out. In addition, the Zhuhai Ineos PTA device with a total capacity of 2.35 million tons has been reduced to 60% for some reason, and the recovery time is to be determined. If this device does not increase the load within the month, PTA may reverse the inventory accumulation pattern in August and shift to a tight balance or a slight increase. Go to the library.
To sum up, under the current strong macro sentiment and strong cost support, if commodities start a new round of rise, PTA is likely to follow suit in the short term. Production starts of PTA and polyester remained at a high level, with no negative feedback pressure, and the overall supply and demand maintained a tight balance. At present, the PTA2401 contract maintains a short long and short position. After September, if the economics of oil adjustment give a clear signal of weakness, a short position can be made on rallies.
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