On September 15, 2023, domestic PX futures and options contracts were officially listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. As a raw material in the upper reaches of the polyester industry chain, this article will analyze the relationship between PX and the polyester industry chain and compare the fundamental patterns to clarify the changes and impacts that PX futures will bring to the industry and the entire market after the listing.
In terms of the relationship between PX and PTA, PX and PTA have a direct upstream and downstream relationship in the industrial chain, and almost all the downstream parts of PX are used to produce PTA. In the production process of PTA, PX is the most important raw material and is irreplaceable. Therefore, the two The relationship between them is extremely close, and the price correlation is above 0.9 all year round. In the production process, each ton of PTA requires approximately 0.655 tons of PX. Therefore, when calculating the cost of PTA, the main factor is the PX price multiplied by the coefficient of 0.655. The PTA processing cost often mentioned in general reports refers to the PTA price minus PX. This part of the cost. As both become active varieties in the futures market, the concept of processing fees will be mentioned more and more and will become one of the main arbitrage methods in disk trading.
In terms of PX fundamentals, as a link that favors upstream refining, PX production capacity has grown significantly with the centralized commissioning of large domestic integrated refineries in the past two years. Starting from the commissioning of Jiujiang Petrochemical in mid-2022, PX has grown rapidly in the past year. In more than a year, more than 11 million tons have been put into production, and the production capacity has grown by more than 30%. However, judging from the follow-up production plan, there will be limited production of domestic devices in the next few years. In 2024, there may be only one 2-million-ton device in Hengyi Brunei. Judging from the pattern of new production capacity, the production capacity pattern of PX may slowly tighten in the future. The commissioning of refineries is restricted by policy factors, and the PX production capacity pattern may shift from excess to balance in the future.
In terms of PTA fundamentals, the biggest theme in recent years is the large production cycle. In the polyester industry chain, the problem of overcapacity is the most serious link in PTA. In the first half of 2022, with the clearance of production capacity in the past year or so, the supply and demand structure of PTA has briefly improved. However, with the successive commissioning of large projects such as Hengli Huizhou, the overcapacity pattern of PTA will still intensify in the next few years. , the pace of large-scale production has not stopped for the time being. Therefore, for PTA, processing fees are expected to be difficult to sustainably improve for a long time. Since this year, spot processing fees have remained below 300 yuan/end for a long time, and this situation may become the norm for PTA.
The listing of PX futures is a supplement to the polyester industry chain, giving market participants more derivatives to choose from. For those who pay attention to this industry, PTA processing fees have always been a relatively important indicator. In the past, PTA factories or investors who wanted to hedge processing fees had to rely on external offers to achieve this. After the listing of PX futures, this Partial positions can be realized in the internal futures market. In addition, PX, as an aromatic hydrocarbon species closer to the upstream in the polyester industry chain, has received a lot of attention in the past two years. For investors who pay attention to the logic of gasoline oil blending demand, PX will be a better choice than PTA. A more direct transaction target.
From a mid- to long-term perspective, the supply and demand of the PX market is greatly affected by the demand for oil adjustment. Before the gasoline pattern weakens, PX will still be treated with a long-term approach. In terms of unilateral prices, both PX and PTA are highly correlated with crude oil. As a more upstream product, PX has a stronger correlation with crude oil. In the context of overcapacity, unilateral prices are more affected by crude oil prices. Impact. With the listing of PX futures, if the forward processing fee rises to a relatively high position, such as above 400 yuan/ton, you can consider shorting the arbitrage position of PTA processing fee. At present, the processing fee after listing is basically maintained at a reasonable level of 100-200 yuan/ton. It is recommended that the forward processing fee arbitrage position can be paid attention to in the long term.
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